Bangladesh Flood Forecasts Distributed to Residents

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December 8, 2007

As catastrophic floods worsen in Bangladesh, a pilot forecasting program is being used to warn thousands of vulnerable residents in selected flood-prone regions. The forecasting system was designed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable regions on Earth to floods. Rising waters in recent days have left dozens of people dead and several million marooned or displaced, with the toll likely to mount.

The 1- to 10-day forecasts are delivered directly, when possible, to more than 100,000 people living in floodplains of the Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers. They will be distributed more widely in coming years.

“Our goal is that long-range flood forecasts, for the first time, will consistently reach many rural individuals in Bangladesh who are in jeopardy of losing their homes, businesses, and possibly their lives,” said NCAR scientist Thomas Hopson, who helped develop the forecasting system.

The forecasting system predicted the current floods several days in advance, but volunteers on the ground cannot yet confirm the extent to which it helped people prepare for these floods.

The system uses a combination of weather forecast models, satellite observations, river gauges, and new hydrologic modeling techniques. It is part of a larger initiative, known as Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh, to improve flood and precipitation warnings in the low-lying nation. Peter Webster, a professor in Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, is the principal investigator of the overall initiative.

Hopson and Webster have provided forecasts to Bangladeshi agencies since 2003, but the forecasts often have not reached rural regions, where many residents lack radios and even electricity. This year, the Thailand-based nonprofit Asia Disaster Preparedness Center has established a network of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, as well as volunteers, to distribute the forecasts directly to people in five districts along the Brahmaputra and Ganges, including impoverished families living on islands known as river chars. The center’s Ramasamy Selvaraju and A.R. Subbiah are overseeing the distribution efforts.-eorgia Institute of Technology

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